INSIDE THE RESEARCH
Nobel-recognized math.
Your trading decision.
We apply options mathematics to estimate probabilities before you commit capital. You set your probability target, choose the position size, and decide whether to trade.
The mathematics behind the odds
NakedPut.AI uses the Black–Scholes options model. The option-pricing research behind this model was recognized by the 1997 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. Read the Nobel Prize background.
We apply that mathematics to current market inputs to estimate P(OTM): the probability that a put expires out of the money and worthless. The purpose is to put a probability estimate in front of you before you take a position.
What “success” means in this research
P(OTM) measures an expiration outcome, not every way a trade can win or lose. It is not the same as probability of net profit after execution costs, fees, early exits, or assignment. Technically, it is a risk-neutral model probability—not a measured real-world success rate. Its usefulness depends on the inputs and assumptions, and actual outcomes can differ.
Start with the board
The portal is the center of NakedPut.AI. It presents cash-secured put candidates from a universe of 101 names, with scheduled updates every five minutes during the trading session. Read the displayed “as of” time: a refresh schedule does not guarantee that a particular quote is current.
Start with your risk profile
Your target probability of expiring worthless defines the profile. For example, if you choose 70%, the objective is to identify puts that meet that model-estimated probability threshold, then show the highest-return qualifying candidates first.
Probability of expiring out of the money, or P(OTM), describes an estimated outcome at expiration. A 70% P(OTM) target is neither a 70% return nor a guarantee that the position will avoid loss or early assignment.
Compare return within that profile
Compare qualifying candidates within each expiration. Return on Collateral (ROC) is total position premium divided by total collateral, expressed as a percentage for the holding period through expiration. ROC is not annualized. Read it alongside the expiration date and days remaining; different holding periods are not converted into a yearly return.
The research covers selected weekly and monthly expirations up to 45 days away. Available results depend on the probability target, eligible contracts, and usable market data.
Keep the units clear
The research uses a $500,000 collateral basis. Premium is the total for the sized position, and collateral is the cash commitment supporting that position. These are position totals, not single-contract amounts. Stock prices, strikes, and bid/ask quotes remain per share. The $500,000 basis is a comparison reference, not a minimum account size or an instruction to commit that amount. You choose your actual contract count and position size. Read the displayed collateral alongside the premium.
Use the morning report as a reference
The daily report covers the cohort captured at 09:50 ET. It is a dated reference for that morning, while the board changes through the session. Those later board updates do not rewrite the morning cohort.
The decision belongs to you
You decide whether a candidate fits your objectives, how much capital to risk, and when to enter or exit. NakedPut.AI supplies the research; it does not choose an allocation, place the order, or manage the position.
Know what the model cannot tell you
Model probabilities are estimates. Markets can gap, liquidity can disappear, and an option quote may not be executable at its displayed price. Review current broker quotes, company events, cash requirements, and assignment exposure before making a decision.
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